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AMC stock prices have plunged drastically today. AMC dropped the share value in hope for more investors to buy them. Now existing stock holders can’t determine weather to hold the diluted stocks or sell them as quickly as possible or buy more. Today AMC issued the following statement.
“AMC is pleased to invite investors to ask and upvote questions that they would like addressed during the AMC earnings webcast. Management will respond to questions about AMC’s strategic priorities, business operations, and financial position, as well as efforts to continue enhancing the business. To comply with U.S. securities laws and on the advice of counsel, unfortunately AMC is unable to answer any questions pertaining to the trading and price volatility of its securities, including but not limited to the short selling of shares or derivatives on AMC stock.”
Zoom out if you’re in any doubt. The price of AMC stock has been consolidating in the $55 area for the past few weeks. It’s never looked better despite massive shorting.
A few weeks ago, we saw what AMC Entertainment’s stock looked like at over $70 a share. But when will we reach a share price of $100? Is it possible that it will happen in the near future?
It is well known in the community that a budget in the $100 level is not a tight one. Heavily buying purchasers and technical chart patterns are the only factors driving this trend.
A squeeze is likely to be forceful in nature. Let me now discuss some of Trey’s technical analysis that he has lately published.
We witnessed a slight retreat from the $60 level down to approximately $54-$56 in the last few days. When the stock price reaches $56, it will bounce up to the high fifties and low sixties.
The next level of resistance, according to Trey, may be around the mid-to-high sixties to low seventies after a clear break of $63.
Holding Shares: AMC Entertainment is yours if you hold shares in the firm. It is true that you are the owner of this colossal century-old company.
Vouchers for the world you keep imagining are issued by your shares. Don’t lose sight of why you’re here. Be patient, since all wonderful things take time. All will be blessed.
Analysis and Prediction:
This is way over-estimating the shares, so I wanted to find a grounded in actual science lower limit. Don’t worry the news is still good.
I want to invoke bastardize the 80/20 rule on this one, which here will basically translate as 20% of the apes are doing 80% of the work, more or less.
What I mean by that here is: let’s say that 20% of the 4.1 million are holding more shares than the rest of the apes. I’m going to assume a sample size of these people would have the higher average of 1185 shares that we’re seeing from the voting.
For the 80% that are not as involved, I’m going to say that their average is 120, which is the number that AA fed us back in June, and oddly, ~10% of the average that’s coming through from voting.
What this does is give us a bi-modal distribution. 80% of apes have an average of 120, and 20% have an average of 1185. (For a normal-distribution, we need to know a standard deviation as well, I selected a standard deviation equal for both sets to their averages–meaning basically the bell curves are “As wide as they are tall” –not visually mind you, but math-wise.)
I used excel to compute the distributions, ranging from 1 share to 10,000 shares, then found out how many shares are held at each count (the x-value), multiplied that by the number of shares at each x value, then added the two curves together to get the following graph. (for example: there’s 6840 shares held by people that only have 1 share; 1.1 Million held by people that have 100 shares.)
So as you can see, this is bimodal because some apes (the “passives”) have a low average and some apes (the actives) have a high average. Of course there’s some passives with a high share count and some actives with a low share count.
To get the total number of shares, then we just sum up the curve (this ignores partial shares).
That sum is: 1.48 Billion shares. Just held by apes, ignoring institutions.
See? Still good news, still 3x the float, still impossible to cover. But not so high that it’s unrealistic (and unbelievable to non-apes.)
Note: this is a lower floor, from assuming the wide standard deviations and throwing out shareholders over 10,000 shares.
Edit: Of interest to note, even if you took away the 80% of the 4.1 million shareholders with the 120 average, you’d still have 980 million shares. Or nearly twice the float. Again ignoring institutions.
Edit: Regarding the 120 share average for the 80%ers. This was stated by Adam Aron in June after the date of record. That number was arrived at by dividing the legal number of shares by the number of shareholders. Do I think that was the real average back then? No. The company can not give any indication of the actual share count if it’s over the legit number of shares. I’m using this number as a lower limit for my analysis.
Edit (Revamped this section): For an EXTREME floor let’s consider the following. Currently there are 26,600 apes voting on the question and 31.5M shares between them. This gives an average of 1185 shares +/- 0.6%.I’m going to postulate that this represents 10% of the people that are “active apes” and have the higher share average, so this becomes 266,000, which is 6.5% of the total shareholders. Meaning 93.5% have an average of 120 shares.Using my above analysis, that means there are, at a bare minimum, 840 million shares. If we double the amount of active apes, then this gives 1.15 billion shares.
If you want to assume that only the 26,600 apes that voted have an average of 1185 and the rest of the apes have a 120 average, then that gives 564 million shares. This is absurdly low as there are plenty of apes with high share counts that aren’t voting.
And just to appease that guy that wants every ape to average 1185 shares, then there’s 5.32 billion shares. 😀